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제목 [Seminar] 8/3 Prof. Jonghun Kam
날짜 2017/07/28 조회수 88
첨부파일1 file1_1501202908.docx

제목 Increased drought and pluvial
risk over California due to changing oceanic conditions 



연사김성중 박사 (극지연구소)



일시2017 8 3 10:00am



장소부산대 통합기계관 10 1010(Jasmine)


Abstract


This seminar will show changes in the risk
of California drought and pluvial due to changing oceanic conditions. Using a
Bayesian analysis of the long-term observed precipitation data, the influence
of oceanic conditions (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal
Variability) on both drought and pluvial risk in California is found to be significant.
The drought risk has increased substantially over the last half century,
especially in southern California, whereas the change in the pluvial risk has
been more modest. Results from idealized climate model experiments show that
natural variability likely played a major role in the observed changes in risk,
with global warming possibly tempering the increases. Evolving oceanic
conditions during 2015 (the warm phase of Pacific Ocean) have significantly
increased the likelihood of pluvial conditions over California for this winter
2015/16, suggesting the potential for drought recovery. However, the
longer-term outlook for a negative phase of Pacific Ocean implies that drought
risk will be elevated in southern California for the next decade.