Hye-Ryeom Kim et al 2023 Environ. Res. Lett. 18 074031 / Focus on Earth System Resilience and Tipping Behavior
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- 2024.09.12
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- GMCL
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Focus on Earth System Resilience and Tipping Behavior
Guest Editors
Chuixiang Yi, City University of New York
Vasilis Dakos, Université de Montpellier
Manjana Milkoreit, University of Oslo
Courtney Quinn, CSIRO
Paul Ritchie, University of Exeter
Juan Rocha Gordo, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University
Jana Sillmann, CICERO
Chuixiang Yi, City University of New York
Vasilis Dakos, Université de Montpellier
Manjana Milkoreit, University of Oslo
Courtney Quinn, CSIRO
Paul Ritchie, University of Exeter
Juan Rocha Gordo, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University
Jana Sillmann, CICERO
Scope
Anthropogenic climate change including the increase of unprecedented climate extremes is not a future threat but is happening now. The ability of the atmosphere, hydrosphere or biosphere to adapt to abrupt changes is very limited within a time-frame meaningful to our present social structures. Consequently, determining the resilience of these earth system components to anthropogenic forcing has become a global concern. The resilience of the system, that is its ability to resist these climate disturbances and to recover from the perturbed state, will be a decaying function of the disturbance intensity. Tipping point dynamics can be used to determine system transition conditions at which the perturbed state is no longer decaying but growing and tipping into a new and potentially stable functional branch of the possible outcomes. In the face of catastrophic changes that might be coming, it is vitally important for policy makers and others to know the conditions at which a tipping point could be reached and exceeded. The earth system is highly nonlinear with many positive and negative feedback interactions so that the tipping behavior is complicated. The complexity raises many open research questions: (1) how to determine the tipping elements? (2) what are the early-warning signals for system transitions? (3) what are the potential domino effects for tipping-cascades of abrupt transitions, and (4) does warming climate increase the risk of triggering tipping points?
Anthropogenic climate change including the increase of unprecedented climate extremes is not a future threat but is happening now. The ability of the atmosphere, hydrosphere or biosphere to adapt to abrupt changes is very limited within a time-frame meaningful to our present social structures. Consequently, determining the resilience of these earth system components to anthropogenic forcing has become a global concern. The resilience of the system, that is its ability to resist these climate disturbances and to recover from the perturbed state, will be a decaying function of the disturbance intensity. Tipping point dynamics can be used to determine system transition conditions at which the perturbed state is no longer decaying but growing and tipping into a new and potentially stable functional branch of the possible outcomes. In the face of catastrophic changes that might be coming, it is vitally important for policy makers and others to know the conditions at which a tipping point could be reached and exceeded. The earth system is highly nonlinear with many positive and negative feedback interactions so that the tipping behavior is complicated. The complexity raises many open research questions: (1) how to determine the tipping elements? (2) what are the early-warning signals for system transitions? (3) what are the potential domino effects for tipping-cascades of abrupt transitions, and (4) does warming climate increase the risk of triggering tipping points?
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